Shock poll leaves FG fearful of a 'ministerial meltdown'

Fine Gael figures were taken by surprise after the first opinion poll published since the General Election was called last week showed a 12-point gap between the Government party and Fianna Fáil.

One senior Fine Gael campaign source admitted that the planned strikes by secondary teachers and childcare workers in the days leading up to the election on February 8 could further imperil the party's chances of securing a historic third term.

While sources at all levels of the party sought to play down the significance of just one poll, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar admitted there was now a "real risk, a real danger" of Fine Gael losing power to Fianna Fáil.

Several Fine Gael TDs told the Irish Independent that second seats could be lost across the country, potentially putting in danger the political careers of several high-profile ministers, including Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy, Social Protection Minister Regina Doherty, Defence Minister Paul Kehoe and others.

A Behaviour and Attitudes poll for the 'Sunday Times' put Fianna Fáil on 32pc and Fine Gael on 20pc - its lowest ever rating in that polling series.

"It's a fact, if you are on 20pc and you're in a three-seater you're not going to get two seats," a Fine Gael TD said. "If that poll is true, you won't record two seats anywhere. It would be worse than 2002."

This is a reference to the disastrous election 18 years ago when Fine Gael won just 31 seats.

Another TD said: "On that figure, we don't hold two seats in any constituency."

A third Fine Gael TD said: "The boys live in the bubble in Leinster House, when you come out you meet the reality, you know. The poll is a setback, but I am confident we'll fight back. I think Leo should meet more people."

Mr Varadkar expressed fears that Fine Gael could be replaced in government after the election. "I think the opinion poll demonstrates that there is a real risk, a real danger that we'll have a Fianna Fáil-led government after the next election and I would hate to see that happen because it would mean the country falling backwards," he said outside Croke Park yesterday.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney said the poll should "act as a motivator for Fine Gael people and Fine Gael candidates right across the country".

However, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin sought to play down the significance of the poll. "I believe it's much tighter. I believe the battles in the individual constituencies will determine the outcome of this election and it will be closely fought," he said.

Mindful

The poll was taken between January 2 and 14 at the height of the now-postponed plans to commemorate the Royal Irish Constabulary.

Labour leader Brendan Howlin said the poll results did not reflect Fine Gael's "missteps" in the first week of campaigning. "You have to be mindful of when this poll was taken. It was taken before the election was called, at the height of the debacle Fine Gael made of the Black and Tan issue," he said.

"I don't think there was a household in the country that wasn't amazed by the view Fine Gael were taking on things."

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe defended a 'Government of Ireland' advertisement published on the front of the 'Business Post' yesterday promoting the rise in the minimum wage after the Opposition accused Fine Gael of using taxpayers' money to "buy the election".

After Fianna Fáil and Labour criticised the ad, Mr Donohoe insisted it was appropriate to let citizens know of a change in the minimum wage and said Fine Gael was not involved in the ad.

"This is the kind of communication that happens every time there is a change in the minimum wage," he said.