'We have achieved our goal': CMO confirms spread of Covid-19 'suppressed'
Ireland has “achieved its goal of suppressing the spread” of Covid-19, with the lowest level of confirmed new cases of the disease since mid-March.
The latest briefing of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) in Dublin revealed that the country’s R0 number — the measure of how many infections are resulting from each positive case of the virus — has now dropped to between 0.5 and 0.6, which leaves it within the manageable capacity of the health services.
“We have achieved our goal of suppressing the spread of the disease,” chief medical officer Tony Holohan told the briefing. “It was not easy for anyone but there is no question that our collective effort has saved lives.”
He said that 29 additional people have died from the disease, giving an overall death toll of 1,403.
However, the reported daily total of 137 new cases represents the lowest figure seen since 121 cases notified on March 22, at the height of the early stage of the pandemic, and five days before lockdown was instigated.
The briefing, the first to be held under strict access control measures after a heated exchange between Dr Holohan and a journalist the previous evening, heard that just 20 people have been admitted to hospital with the virus over the past week, with the number of daily intensive care admissions now down to two.
“Now we look to the pattern of Covid-19 going forward, as we attempt to ease restrictions,” Dr Holohan said.
The first date for the gradual easing of restrictions is Monday, May 18 — 10 days away: “These weeks are just as important as the first weeks of our response."
The drop in the R number, which stood at 0.8 two weeks ago, is “a very considerable success” Dr Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, told the briefing.
It’s a success for the way people have managed their lives in order to prevent the spread of the virus. If you take two individuals now, one of them is transmitting it to nobody else.
He added however that people “should not place too much store in this number”.
“We aren’t aiming for any particular R number.” However, an R0 of 1.2 would be considered unsustainable for the Irish health service.
Dr Holohan outlined some further research conducted by NPHET, which suggests that 96% of people are now washing their hands more often, with 91% of people social distancing while in a queue.
“These are behaviours we have been doing and we need to keep doing. If we do that we have good reason to be hopeful,” he said.
He said that consideration will be given at Friday’s second weekly meeting of NPHET to whether or not to test all residents in direct provision for the virus, after Minister for Health told the Dail yesterday that 164 residents have contracted the illness to date — nearly double the previously known figure.
Deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn meanwhile addressed the “process issues” which have dogged the conduct of contact tracing. He said they include “there not being phone numbers on all swabbing forms, or some positive cases not answering their phone”, but added that “significant improvements have been seen in those processes in the past two weeks.
Dr Holohan meanwhile said that, in addition to the 2,000 civilian contact tracers who have received training, of whom just 40 were in use earlier this week, between 60 and 80 public health tracers are always working at any one time who are charged with handling “the really challenging” cases such as of those who have travelled by air.
He confirmed that anyone presenting to hospital with Covid 19 who subsequently dies, regardless of the cause, will be included in the mortality total, in line with WHO guidance.
“We have a very high level of testing in comparison to other countries,” he said.
