New research from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) has found that extending free GP care to the whole population in 2026 would cost the State between €381m and €881m.
The study was funded by the Department of Health and estimates the cost of extending free GP care over time, between 2023 and 2026, examining scenarios where the extension is based on age and on income.
The 2017 all-party Sláintecare Report recommended a move towards a universal healthcare system for Ireland which would include free GP care.
The ESRI report says that unlike most European countries, most people in Ireland pay out of pocket for GP care.
Almost 60% of the population do not have either a medical card, or a GP visit card.
The study looked at extending eligibility over time, between 2023 and 2026, based on age or based on income.
Based on age, the cost in 2026 would be between €462m and €881m. Based on income it would be between €381m and €881m.
The report warns that there may not be enough GPs to provide the service given the ageing and growing population.
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Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, one of the authors of the report Dr Sheelah Connolly said that 56% of the population pays to see their GP at the moment. She said that the research and the wide range in the figures relating to cost, reflected the uncertainty in the sector.
"We estimated that for 2026, there would be in the region of an additional €2 million GP visits arising from that change in policy, and between 2023 and 2026, demand for GPs is likely to increase anyway due to a growing and changing population so the change in eligibility, increase in demand will come on top of that," she added.
Although it was not looked at in the research, she said that the general hope is that if primary care is funded well it might take pressure off the hospital sector.
She said it was unlikely that the spend on hospitals is going to decrease, but it might be that it increases at a slightly lower rate.
The chairperson of the Irish Medical Organisation's GP Sub-Committee said he would be concerned that the introduction of free GP care in an "unplanned way" would lead to GPs "not being able to handle the stress" associated with it.
Speaking on the same programme, Dr Denis McCauley said: "If you super impose free GP care in an unplanned way it will overwhelm the system and you'll have waiting lists in GPs ... young GPs will say it’s turning into the UK and the system is going to become dysfunctional".
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He said that at present, GPs do not know when the next batch of doctor visit cards are going to come in while free GP care for six and seven-year-olds was meant to start last year and has not started in any way.
He said there have been discussions with the Government and HSE related to age-related expansion and the further expansion of free GP cards, but "we are trying to find out what the plans are".
The chairman of the board of the Irish College of General Practitioners said there are currently 4,000 GPs working in the system, but this would need to increase to 6,500 by 2028 to meet existing demand and replace retiring doctors.
'Simply unachievable'
Speaking to RTÉ's Drivetime, Dr John Farrell said 25% of all GPs are over 60 years of age. Between 600 and 700 GPs are expected to retire over the next five to ten years.
"While we support the extension of free GP care in principle, we do feel that at the moment this is unachievable," he said.
"We don't have sufficient GP numbers to provide the quality of care that's necessary."
The Medical Director of the Irish College of General Practitioners said free GP care for all is "simply unachievable without a very substantial expansion of the GP numbers".
Speaking to RTÉ News Six One, Dr Diarmuid Quinlan, who is also a GP in Glanmire, Co Cork, said: "GPs welcome in principle the delivery of universal care that is free at the point of access or free GP care, however we face a huge crisis in our GP workforce."
